The United States Senate is projected to flip back into Republican control after a series of strategic wins in key battleground states in the ongoing elections.
Republicans have successfully gained seats by flipping at least two critical states while protecting their incumbents, putting them on track to secure a 51-seat majority in the Senate.
In a pivotal move, Republican Governor Jim Justice won the seat vacated by independent Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who caucuses with Democrats. In Ohio, businessman Bernie Moreno defeated three-term Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, flipping the state’s Senate seat to the GOP.
Meanwhile, Republican Senators Rick Scott of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas—two lawmakers in red-leaning states that were among the Democrats’ best hopes—are both projected to win re-election. In Nebraska, Republican Senator Deb Fischer successfully fended off an independent challenger, solidifying her seat.
With the Democrats holding a narrow 51-49 majority, these Republican victories ensure a flip in control, giving them at least a 51-seat majority in the Senate, barring any unexpected upsets. Republicans are also eyeing the seat held by Democratic Senator Jon Tester in deep-red Montana, though ABC News has yet to project the result of that race.
Ohio’s Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno spoke to his supporters during an election night watch party in Westlake, Ohio, on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, celebrating the GOP’s gains.
“Look, today starts a new wave. You know, we talked about wanting a red wave. I think what we have tonight is a red, white, and blue wave in this country,” Moreno declared during his victory speech.
For Democrats, retaining Senate control was always a challenging task, with the party defending seats in several red states like Montana and Ohio, as well as purple states such as Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The GOP had targeted Democratic-held seats in Florida and Texas, which were considered their best opportunities for flipping.
The Republican success in these states marks a significant victory for the GOP, particularly after their disappointing performance in the 2022 midterm elections, where Democrats unexpectedly expanded their Senate majority by one seat.
In the 2024 cycle, Republicans played a more active role in Senate primaries, aiming to elevate electable candidates, though notably, they did not intervene in Ohio’s race.
Despite Democratic optimism late in the race, particularly with a competitive race in Nebraska and hopes for gains in Texas and Florida, the results fell short for the Democrats. Senators Cruz and Scott easily secured re-election, and though independent candidate Dan Osborn in Nebraska posed a challenge to Fischer, he could not overcome the national Republican headwinds.
This marks a return to Senate power for the GOP, which had been locked out since early 2021, following losses in two key Georgia Senate runoff races. Republicans had largely blamed former President Donald Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of election fraud in Georgia for those losses.
The party’s prospects dimmed further in 2022 when they lost a Senate seat in Pennsylvania, shifting the balance to a 51-49 Democratic majority.
As Republicans prepare to reclaim Senate control, they are facing leadership changes within their own ranks. Longtime GOP Senate leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky is stepping down from his leadership role, though he will remain in the Senate.
The GOP conference will vote next week to choose a new leader, with South Dakota Senator John Thune and Texas Senator John Cornyn considered front-runners, and Florida Senator Rick Scott also in the mix, though seen as a longshot.
If Trump were to win a second term as president, a Republican-controlled Senate would be crucial in confirming judicial and administrative nominations, though the 60-vote filibuster remains a potential obstacle to passing significant legislation.
This could require cooperation with Democrats on essential bills, such as government funding and key legislation, potentially elevating the voices of moderate Republicans like Senators Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.
“Tonight Republicans retook the Senate Majority and held every single incumbent, which is great news for the American people. A Republican majority will work to secure the border, bring down prices, and help confirm President Trump’s nominees. We still have a number of competitive races we are watching across the country that remain to be called,” said Senator Steve Daines of Montana, chair of Senate Republicans’ campaign arm.
Looking ahead to the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats are expected to go on the offensive, targeting seats in Maine and North Carolina while defending their positions in Georgia and Michigan.
