The Nigerian Institute of Social and Economic Research has released a new report forecasting significant economic growth for Nigeria in the coming years.
The report, titled “Prospects for the Nigerian Economy: 2023 to 2027”, presents a comprehensive assessment of the country’s economic outlook.
According to the report, Nigeria’s economy is expected to experience remarkable growth, driven by improved macroeconomic conditions.
The report is based on a rigorous modeling exercise and evaluates the impact of the current administration’s policies on key economic indicators.
The report focuses on four critical areas: economic growth, employment generation, inflation, and fiscal policy profile. The findings suggest that Nigeria is on track for sustained economic expansion, with potential gains in employment and income, according to ThisDay.
This positive outlook aligns with earlier projections by international organizations, solidifying expectations for Nigeria’s economic future. The report provides valuable insights for policymakers, investors, and stakeholders, guiding informed decisions to drive economic progress.
The presenter, Awode, revealed during the presentation that: “While there are currently pains from the immediate effects of policy reforms, the projections show improved performance on the four performance domains which include that economic growth in Nigeria will be above 3 percent from 2024 to 2027 bringing an optimistic impact of the present economic reforms.
“The growth of the agriculture sector will be slow, averaging about 0.5 percent due to structural defects that should be addressed for a robust growth trajectory given the importance of the sector in the Nigerian economy.
“Distributive trade, building and construction sectors will witness a significant surge in growth in 2024, averaging 16 percent each from 2024 to 2027, indicating the impact of reforms around the Presidential intervention development grants, driven by increased infrastructural investment and construction activities. Mining and quarrying will grow consistently averaging 11 percent with the potential to make solid minerals ‘the new oil’ for Nigeria.
“20 million jobs will be generated within the period of 2023- to 2027, should the minimum wage negotiation settle at N70,000. However, a minimum wage of N100, 000 will lessen the number of generated jobs by 1 million. Either way, the effects will not trigger inflation as anticipated.
“Projections on the fiscal deficit to GDP ratio is within the 3 percent generally acceptable limit. The total debt stock to GDP ratio will be 34.91 percent in 2027, well within the internationally acceptable limit of 40 percent.
“The debt service to revenue ratio projections appear relatively high due to pressure to borrow to service loans, however, the progress being made in revenue collection by the current administration will yield an improved fiscal profile in the country. At present, both the headline and food inflation rates are quite high, but a rapid decline will be witnessed in 2025.”
The Director-General of the Institute, Professor Antonia Taiye Simbine, in her welcome remarks, noted that “what NISER has done is to examine some of the reforms in place under the current administration and to project where the country will be in 2027, all things being equal and especially if we continue on the same or on an improved trajectory.”
The discussants, Mr. David Adeosun (former director, macroeconomic department, MFBNP), and Professor Suleiman Yusuf of Agricultural Economics department, University of Ibadan, also aligned with the position of the Institute that there is hope in the horizon for Nigeria’s economy.
